Military historians have long debated the capacity of air power alone to defeat determined adversaries. President Donald Trump is conducting a real-time test of that proposition in Iran, subjecting the country to some of the most intense aerial bombardment in modern history while its government continues to function, its military continues to fight, and its population continues to mourn and resist. The results, so far, are instructive.
The air campaign has been ferocious. American B-2 stealth bombers have struck Iran’s buried missile infrastructure with dozens of 2,000-pound penetrating munitions — weapons specifically designed to destroy targets that conventional bombs cannot reach. A large Iranian naval vessel has been hit and possibly sunk. Israel has systematically dismantled Hezbollah’s command structure in Lebanon. The defense secretary has promised a dramatic surge in US firepower. The IDF chief has promised new and undisclosed phases of the offensive.
But Iran has not folded. The Revolutionary Guards continue launching missiles and drones at Gulf states and at Israel. Hezbollah continues fighting in Lebanon. Iran’s government continues to function. Its leadership council is meeting to plan the succession of the supreme leadership. No senior military or political officials have defected. Friday prayers in Tehran drew massive, emotional crowds pledging resistance. The government’s control over its armed forces and territory appears intact despite the bombardment.
This is consistent with historical experience. Sustained bombing campaigns in Korea, Vietnam, Serbia, Iraq, and Libya all produced significant military damage without necessarily achieving the political objectives that motivated them. Iran’s population has a deep historical memory of sacrifice during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, during which they absorbed massive military pressure without surrendering. That history may be informing the government’s current posture.
Trump has promised that greater firepower will change the equation. The defense secretary has confirmed that a surge is coming. Whether additional bombing can achieve what the opening week of the campaign could not will determine whether Trump’s theory of the case is correct. The answer will be written in the weeks ahead, at a cost that neither the Middle East nor the world can fully anticipate.